THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM iT TAKES BIG DAYS TO WIN BIG
THE DEFYING TRUTH
Slow and steady wins the race. Well, steady usually does.
Fantasy owners are always chasing those one-game week winners (see: Jamaal
Charles, 51 points in Week 15; Peyton Manning, 46 in Week 1; Nick Foles, 45 in
Week 9). But success in this game is as much about avoiding the stinkers as it is
about chasing the studs. Consistency should—and does—count for something.
That's why, in addition to tallying player fantasy point totals, we estimate each
player's reliability with a metric called consistency ratings. The formula is
simple: When a player registers a fantasy point total that warranted his
placement in your lineup, we credit him with a start. So in a 10-team
ESPN league, for example, the top 10 quarterbacks and tight ends for
the given week earn a start. (The same applies to running backs
and wide receivers, except the field is expanded to the top 25 each
week.) We then total each player's number of starts for the year and
divide by team games. A consistency rating of 50 percent or greater
is good. Anything north of 60 percent is outstanding. But what
does that mean for 2014? Well, here are some highlights and
lowlights. Let's call them consistency kings and dings. HINT: You want to draft the kings. —TRISTAN H. COCKCROFT
16 ESPN FANTASY FOOTBALL
CLOCKWISE FROM LEFT: GENE J. PUSKAR/AP IMAGES; AARON M. SPRECHER/AP IMAGES; CHARLES REX ARBOGAST/AP IMAGES
RUSSELL WILSON
SEA / QB RATING: 50%
The champ stepped up his game in a major way in year two, scoring 15 to 25 fantasy points in eight of his 16 games. His rushing ability makes him extremely reliable week to week.
OTHER KINGS Matt Ryan, ATL; Peyton Manning, DEN
LE'VEON BELL PIT / RB RATING: 69%
A Lisfranc injury cost him the first three games of 2013, but Bell delivered rare consistency for a rookie. He scored seven to 19 fantasy points in 11 straight games.
OTHER KINGS Eddie Lacy, GB;
Matt Forte, CHI
BRANDON MARSHALL CHI / WR RATING: 75%
The only wide receiver to warrant 12 fantasy starts in each of the past two seasons, Marshall has his healthy target totals (an NFLhigh 355 since 2012) to thank for his steady play.
OTHER KINGS Steve Smith, BAL;
Wes Welker, DEN
GREG OLSEN CAR / TE RATING: 50%
A cost-effective option if you're funneling resources to QB/RB/WR, Olsen won't ever win you weeks, but he'll rarely lay an egg. He registered five-plus fantasy points in nine of his 16 games last season.
OTHER KINGS Jimmy Graham, NO; Heath Miller, PIT
ANDY DALTON CIN / QB RATING: 38%
The No. 5 scorer among quarterbacks last season, Dalton was remarkably unreliable on a week-to-week basis, scoring in single digits four times. His totals were padded by three 30-point outings.
OTHER DINGS Geno Smith, NYJ; Colin Kaepernick, SF
DARREN SPROLES PHI / RB RATING: 19%
Sproles had the same number of weeks outside the top 50 (three) as he had inside the top 25. With the Eagles, it's hard to see his getting a healthy amount of touches on a regular basis.
OTHER DINGS LeGarrette Blount, PIT; Donald Brown, SD
VICTOR CRUZ NYG / WR RATING: 31%
Over the past two seasons, Cruz has ranked outside the top 50 a whopping 10 times, and he warranted a start just three additional weeks. In 2013, he had two 20-point games and three with two or fewer.
OTHER DINGS T.Y. Hilton, IND; Marvin Jones, CIN
COBY FLEENER IND / TE RATING: 38%
Fleener converted targets into catches only 60 percent of the time last season, the third-worst figure among TEs. That explains why he managed just 10 fantasy points in the final five weeks of the season.
OTHER DINGS Jared Cook, STL; Brent Celek, PHI
CONSISTENCY KINGS CONSISTENCY DINGS
TRUTHS BE TOLD
ESPN FANTASY FOOTBALL 17
THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM SPREAD OUT YOUR STUDS' BYE WEEKS
THE DEFYING TRUTH While it's important to make sure your starters' bye weeks don't overlap with your backups', there's something to be said for fielding a roster with all
your studs sharing the same bye. Consider these two teams: Team A starts Peyton Manning, Andre Ellington, A.J. Green and Seattle's defense; Team B has Drew Brees,
LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew and the Niners' defense. If you have Team A, it means you're all but guaranteed a loss in Week 4. But Team B—with Brees (Week 6 bye),
MJD (Week 5), McCoy (Week 7) and San Fran's D (Week 8)—will lose a significant chunk of points every week for a month straight. Sacrificing one week to avoid a constant lineup merry-go-round doesn't sound like such a crazy idea anymore, does it? —AJ MASS
THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
DRAFT TIGHT ENDS WHO LINE UP AT TIGHT END
THE DEFYING TRUTH How do you choose
your fantasy tight end? Red zone
threats, third down security blankets
and guys who hang on to the ball are
all good places to start. But here's one
more: Look for tight ends who don't
actually play tight end. The top 10
fantasy tight ends last year lined up
as wide receivers (slot or perimeter)
on 47.8 percent of snaps. As the
accompanying chart shows, the
second and third tiers tell a much
different story, both in pre-snap
alignment and fantasy production.
Overall, 10 of the top 50 fantasy tight
ends in 2013 played at least half of
their snaps off the line of scrimmage, including barely-a-TE Jimmy Graham (split out 66.4 percent of the time).
Those tight ends averaged 6.4 fantasy
points per active game. The other 40?
They saw their average dip more than 30 percent to 4.3. —JOHN PAROLIN
TIGHT ENDS, 2013
SPLIT-OUT PERCENTAGE
1-10
11-20
21-50
47.8% 8.3
35.9% 3.8
30% 3.2
THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM BUTTERFINGERS CARRY OVER
THE DEFYING TRUTH It's an eternal football question: Are the dropsies
due to bad hands or a bad psyche? The data say blame the brain.
Since 2006, receivers who were among the 10 worst pass
droppers one year improved significantly the following
season. In fact, of the 88 worst offenders in that time frame,
77 of them turned it around the next season by an average
of five fewer drops. In 2012, the Saints' Jimmy Graham,
Marques Colston and Darren Sproles were three of the big
gest culprits, dropping a combined 32 passes. Last year they
had seven. Total. By that same logic, we should see serious sopho
more improvement from RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Aaron Dobson
and—just maybe—a historic output from otherworldly veterans like Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson. —BEN BRADLEY
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