THE FACT IS THAT UNTIL LAST YEAR, THE ELITE BALL CARRIERS HAD MOSTLY AVOIDED SUCH SOUL-CRUSHING SEASONS

THE FACT IS THAT UNTIL LAST YEAR, THE ELITE BALL CARRIERS HAD MOSTLY AVOIDED SUCH  SOUL-CRUSHING SEASONSof them justified it (Andre Johnson in 2009), while three crashed. In case you're still dubious, I crunched all of the numbers in Chart E. So remind me again: Which position has the most risk?‍

OBJECTION NO. 3

STOP WORRYING! I CAN JUST FIND A GREAT RUNNING BACK  IN THE SECOND ROUND! Sometimes that's true. In 2013, for instance, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray and Chris Johnson were drafted in the 11-through-20 range of RBs and delivered top-10 seasons. If you were wise enough to draft Calvin Johnson instead of, say, C.J. Spiller and then take Forte or Murray in the second round, you did a nice job. But here are a few other names drafted in that 11-through-20 range who may have tempted you: Stevan Ridley, Maurice Jones-Drew, David Wilson and Darren McFadden. Blech! If you got stuck with any of those guys as your top RB, it probably was a long season, even if you did have Megatron. Indeed, the data says that assuming a second-round RB will make up for failing to get a first-rounder tends not to work. Take a peek at Chart F to see how backs selected from 13th to 24th overall have performed. And you know what else skews our perspective on the value of early-round RBs? Every year some randomseeming rusher goes undrafted in most leagues, becomes a harmless-seeming early-season waiver add, transmogrifies into a fantasy stud and convinces us that the position is overrated and random. In 2013, it was Knowshon Moreno. In 2012, it was Alfred Morris. In 2011, it was Darren Sproles. And so on. If you were lucky enough to fall into these unexpected stars, any mistakes you might've made with your early picks didn't matter so much. But is that really a strategy? Hoping that the thunderbolt strikes 

you between the eyes and you luck into the one gamechanging RB nobody saw coming? Personally, I prefer to play it smart and plan.

CONCLUSIONS As I noted, there are no set-in-stone rules about which position you must draft in the first round. Still, I think the most valuable thing we can take away from this history lesson is the notion that we shouldn't overreact to a single year. If taking a running back early was the correct strategy entering 2013, it's no less correct this season. In standard-scoring leagues, there are four rushers who should be off the board before you consider anyone else. You can order them however you like: Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte. I think you're doing your fantasy squad a disservice if you bypass these backs in favor of the top player at another position. The data above makes this self-evident. Personally, I'd also add Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy to the mix. I wouldn't consider a QB or wide receiver (or Jimmy Graham) ahead of any of the six top running backs still on the board. One of them could bust, but history tells us it's unlikely that more than one will. After that, would I consider drafting Manning or Megatron? That's a reasonable question, though the data from the past six seasons tells me those non-running backs will likely be overvalued in 2014. I still might take Doug Martin, Alfred Morris and Zac Stacy before I'd go elsewhere, and I could even add Foster to that list. So running backs no longer fetch the largest raw point totals. But the scarcity of elite RBs is real, and despite the carnage of 2013, you should still target rushers in your first round. They're not safe. But they feature a better combination of safety and upside than any other firstround option. 

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