LATE
ARIZONA CARDINALS
ATLANTA FALCONS
BALTIMORE RAVENS
BUFFALO BILLS
CAROLINA PANTHERS
CHICAGO BEARS
CINCINNATI BENGALS
CLEVELAND BROWNS
DALLAS COWBOYS
DENVER BRONCOS DETROIT LIONS
3 13
12 4
14 2
14 2
13 3
12 4
14 2
15 1
8
13
8
3
13 3
GREEN BAY PACKERS HOUSTON TEXANS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
MIAMI DOLPHINS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
NEW YORK GIANTS
11 5
14 2
10 6
15 1
79
313
115
10 6
12 4
9 7
NEW YORK JETS
OAKLAND RAIDERS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
ST. LOUIS RAMS
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
TENNESSEE TITANS
EARLY GAMES: THURSDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, SUNDAY 1 P.M. ET OR EARLIER; LATE GAMES: 4 P.M. ET SUNDAY, MONDAY NIGHT
511
6 10
79
11 5
9 7
6 10
4 12
5 11
2
4
14
12
14 2
2014 SCHEDULES
FROM LEFT: PAT LOVELL/USA TODAY SPORTS; DAMIAN STROHMEYER/AP IMAGES; JIM ROGASH/GETTY IMAGES
18 ESPN FANTASY FOOTBALL
THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM START TIMES DON'T MATTER
T H E D E F Y I N G T R U T H "Questionable." It's the most ambiguous term in all of fantasy football. And it drives owners crazy. One way to make fewer questionable calls with your studs on the mend? If you draft starters with lots of early games, grab backups with afternoon/prime-time tilts. That gives you actionable information regarding your starters' weekly injury status before having to decide whether to plug in a backup. It's a foolproof way to avoid playing a stud who's inactive on Monday night. It may seem counterintuitive to draft, say, Bengals RB Giovani Bernard over the Broncos' Montee Ball. But as the accompanying chart shows, Ball will play in 13 late games in 2014, which means he'll often leave you in injury limbo. Bernard has only two late games scheduled, so you'll know where you stand before the 1 p.m. games kick off. —KEN DAUBE
5 PLAYERS TO DOWNGRADE
ADRIAN PETERSON, MIN
After catching just 29 passes last season, AP might not even be a top-five pick in PPR formats.
ALFRED MORRIS, WAS
Morris has been targeted 27 times in 32 career games. Jamaal Charles nearly eclipsed that through Week 3 last season.
ERIC DECKER, NYJ
He's finally the clear No. 1 WR, but it comes at a price: Peyton Manning is no longer his QB.
RILEY COOPER, PHI
He had a breakout 2013, but 80 players— yes, 80—had more catches.
VERNON DAVIS, SF
He bounced back with 13 TDs but had only 52 receptions. The 49ers threw the fewest passes in 2013.
5 PLAYERS TO TARGET
PIERRE THOMAS, NO
Thomas led all RBs with 77 grabs last season, and he ranked 17th among RBs in PPR formats.
DANNY WOODHEAD, SD
The first-year Charger nabbed 76 passes and was second among RBs with 6 receiving TDs.
ANDRE ELLINGTON, ARI
Deadly in space, Ellington should see a year two boost in targets (56) and receptions (39).
JULIAN EDELMAN, NE
Turns out it was Edelman—and not Danny Amendola—who inherited the Wes Welker role for the Patriots.
ANTONIO BROWN, PIT
Second in the NFL with 110 catches, Brown snagged five or more balls in every game.
TRUTHS BE TOLD
THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM DRAFT YOUR KICKER LAST
THE DEFYING TRUTH The next time a
kicker is heralded as a smart pick
will be the first time. But don't let
the public ridicule stop you from
snagging your PK1 as early as
Round 14. Here's why: The Patriots' Stephen Gostkowski has been the NFL's best fantasy kicker the past
two seasons, outscoring the No. 10
kicker by an average of 55 points
each year. Last season, by the time
the 14th round rolled around, own
ers were usually selecting either
the No. 34 running back or No. 36
wide receiver. Those two slots aren't
55 points better than comparable
16th-rounders or waiver-wire claims.
Further, 13th- and 14th-round selec
tions were dropped more than any
other in ESPN standard leagues last
year. If you want a pick that sticks, kicker is the way to go. —KEN DAUBE
THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM COLD WEATHER IS A FANTASY KILLER
THE DEFYING TRUTH
You probably remember the Peyton-Manning-can't-play-in-coldweather storyline from last season. How could you forget? He is, after all, 8–11 all time on sub-40-degree days and 86–35 in warmer weather. And it's true that last year Manning threw for almost 80 fewer yards and averaged five fewer fantasy points in cold-weather games. But No. 18 appears to be an anomaly. Would you believe that in 2013, NFL QBs actually averaged 1.9 more fantasy points and threw for nearly identical yardage in cold-weather games? Now compare that with the other positions. While WRs and TEs produced almost identical fantasy outputs, RBs actually performed considerably better as the temps dropped. In sub-40-degree games last year, the top 20 RBs averaged 14.8 fantasy points. Compare that with just 11.7 fantasy ppg when the weather was 61 degrees or warmer. Bottom line: Weather THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM POSTSEASON FANTASY LEAGUES ARE A WASTE
THE DEFYING TRUTH
If you've never tried a postseason fantasy league, well, it's time to change that. It's as simple as the regular-season version: Organize a group of up to 12 owners,
conduct a draft from the pool of players on playoff rosters and choose whatever scoring you want. The key difference is the conflict between picking great players versus picking
good players who are more likely to advance. Last year, for instance, would you rather have had LeSean McCoy or Knowshon Moreno? McCoy was dominant all season, but the Eagles
were a long shot to make a playoff run. Meanwhile, Moreno played three games—none of which was overly impressive—and outscored McCoy 25-14. Overall, only one of the 25
highest-scoring playoff players in 2013 was one-and-done. Oh, and remember this: Contrary to a regular-season league, make sure you don't neglect your defense. If you rode the Seattle D (36 fantasy points, No. 8 overall) during the Seahawks' Super Bowl run last season, you likely took home your title too. —TRISTAN H. COCKCROFT
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